A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
